According to a major study published today, in 2100 on Earth, there could be 8.8 billion people, 2 billion less than projected by the United Nations. The reasons are to be found in the decline of the fertility rate of the population.
In the paper, available on The magazine The Lancet.reads 183 countries out of 195, will fall below the threshold required to maintain the current level of the population: consequently, the dead will not be balanced by births, except for a big influx of immigrants.
Twenty countries (including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea, and Poland) will experience a population decline of halfbut what is surprising is the fact of China, which will increase from 1.4 billion people to 730 million in the space of 80 years.
To triple the size to approximately three billion people will be in sub-saharan Africa, with Nigeria to expand to 800 million compared to the attuai 196, and will be second only to India which will be at 1.1 billion.
The the decrease of fertility will increase the life expectancyit is expected a decrease of more than 40% of the children under five years, from 681 million of the 2017 401 million in 2100. According to the study, 2.37 billion people will be over 65 years of age, while those over 80 will rise to 866 million. For this reason, according to the paper, it will be necessary to revise the social services and health systems, which will need to be able to take care of the older people.
In China is also expected a collapse of working-age peoplerising from 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century. In India however such a decline would be less steep. Different speech for Nigeria, where the active labour force will expand from 86 to 450 million.
Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evalutation of the University of Washington, speaking with the AFP, stated that “these forecasts represent a good news for the environment, and they suggest less stress on the systems of food production and lower carbon emissions, as well as significant economic opportunities for parts of sub-saharan Africa“.
The central, according to Murray, it will be the policy choices of the central government, that will support immigration policies are flexible, and the families who want children.
In this regard, according to the forecast by 2050, the GDP of China will surpass that of the USAthat, however, their time should return to the first place by 2100. The third place will rise China, with Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom will remain among the 10 largest economies in the world. Italy and Spain will come down to the 25th and the 28th place, and will come forth from the the top 15.